Area Forecast Discussion

AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN336 PM CDT THU SEP
25 2008.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE MID STATE. CURRENTDEW POINTS ARE IN THE
40S EXCEPT FOR SOME 30S ALONG THE PLATEAU. NOTA CLOUD IS IN THE SKY AND NORTH
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH PREVAIL.WINDS TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AND GIVEN THE LOW DEWPOINTS...RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE ON ORDER. I WILL NEED TOINCLUDE OUTLYING
AREAS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE NASHVILLE ZONES ASREADINGS WERE DOWN IN THE 40S
LAST NIGHT FOR MANY AREAS.STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WESTWARDTHROUGH TOMORROW. THUS...NORTH WINDS OF 1-15 MPH WILL AGAIN
OCCURTOMORROW. SHOULD SEE 850 MB TEMPS DROP A COUPLE
DEGREES SO WE SHOULDSEE NEAR 80 FOR HIGHS TOMORROW. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB
SOME BUTCONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL STILL BE TOO HIGH. HENCE...ANOTHER M SUNNYDAY.FOR
THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE THE OVER ON LOWSALTHOUGH WITH SUCH A
DRY ATMOSPHERE...WILL
PLAY IT CAREFULLY.STORM SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS BY
FRIDAYNIGHT AND SATURDAY. NAM AND NGM SOLUTIONS SPREAD
PRECIP ALMOST TOTHE PLATEAU. NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS ARE CARRYING LIKELY POPS. I WILLINCLUDE A
30 POP FOR THE PLATEAU FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. DONTWANT TO PUT HIGH POPS IN AS THE WESTERN
REACHES OF THE STORM SYSTEMIS LIKELY TO PROVIDE A SUBSIDENCE
REGION.IN THE EXT FCST...STORM SYSTEM TO
OUR EAST LIFTS OFF TO THENORTHEAST LEAVING A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE. A FROPA WILLOCCUR ON
TUESDAY WITH SOME COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. AT THIS TIME...THEFRONT APPEARS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.
BUT...WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTIONTO THE ISC GRIDS FOR FINAL DECISION AS TO WHETHER
OR NOT A 20 POP ISNEEDED FOR TUES
THROUGH WED. AT ANY RATE...COOLER TEMPS FOR WED ANDTHU.