Friday, October 17, 2008

Boring Fall Weather! Change Soon?

With all of the boring weather of late, lets look ahead to the potentially big storm that looks to develop in the nation's mid-section next week. Here are some National Weather Service Forecast Office's personal takes on the impending system next week. The boring weather across the entire nation looks to become a little more stormy next week as a strong autumn storm bears down on the high plains and midwest.

Quad Cities, Ia
AFTER QUIET AND COOL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...UNDER A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER
THE MIDWEST THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH SHOWER POSSIBLE LATE WEST. A VERY DEEP AND POTENTIALLY
STRONG SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CUT OFF OVER THE MIDWEST PROVIDING DAILY RAIN CHANCES...
CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. ALL
MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATTERN. WITH A WIDE OPEN

GULF...AND AT LEAST ONE SOLID PERIOD OF STRONG FORCING...SEASONALLY
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW...WE ARE
FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S WITH THE SYSTEM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HOWEVER IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT SHOULD THE CLOSED LOW VERIFY...OUR LOWS AND HIGHS WILL
LIKELY BOTH BE IN THE 40S.

Springfield, Mo

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
TIMING/LOCATION OF LARGE SYNOPTIC STORM SYSTEM. 12Z GFS HAS COME
MORE AROUND TO WHAT 00Z ECMWF WAS SHOWING AND THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS
COMING IN EVEN SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR NOW HAVE WENT CLOSER
TO THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WITH MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE SLOWED AGAIN
DEPENDING ON THE UPCOMING SOLUTIONS. BOTH ARE SHOWING A STRONG
CLOSED SYSTEM WITH 530-534 1000/500MB THICKNESS VALUES UP IN THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. SYSTEM WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR A VARIETY OF WEATHER IN THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK.

North Platte, Ne


EYES ARE FOCUSED MORE ON THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A MAJOR SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED IN THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO WRAP UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT...SO STILL UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT
TRACK. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CWA
TO BE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. COLD
AIR ALSO GETS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW. NEXT FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH VERY CLOSELY TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

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