Next Week=Chaos

Everyone who follows the weather closely and is as big of a weather enthusiast as I am knows what this post is about and that they you best get thier rest this weekend, because next week looks to become a utter chaotic mess. Things are still quite cloudy as too what will happen, but this storm system is not ten days away. Things are going to start becoming more clear each day. By Sunday, we should start to know better what we are dealing with. The scenarios from the different models are amusing. This strong system is something we are going to have to monitor throughout the weekend.

Below is the latest HPC hazards map and HPC discussion. Quite Interesting.

FOR WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 10 - SUNDAY DECEMBER 14: BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL US AND BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARDS BEGINNING ON DECEMBER 9TH WITH TWO EMBEDDED ROBUST SHORTWAVES - ONE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND ANOTHER IN SOUTHERN STREAM. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING CONSIDERABLY IN WHICH SHORTWAVE WILL DOMINATE ALTHOUGH RECENT RUNS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. CONSEQUENTLY, THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH IMPACT WEATHER - SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, FUTURE CYCLONE TRACK AND LATER THE EXTENT OF COLD AIR INTRUSION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. EVEN WITH THESE DIFFERENCES IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT AN AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARDS AS A STRONG FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE ALONG WITH GOOD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND LATER SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. MOREOVER, ALTHOUGH NO SPECIFICS CAN BE PROVIDED AT THIS TIME, SEVERE WEATHER MAY BECOME A THREAT FOR AREAS IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. IF THE GFS SOLUTION IS REALIZED AND A DEEPER CYCLONE DEVELOPS, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE HIGHLIGHTED PRECIPITATION AREA FOR A REGION OF HEAVY SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE CONSIDERABLE DROUGHT RELIEF FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US. BEHIND THIS STORM SYSTEM, CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN VERY COLD AIR, AND TEMPERATURES STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EASTWARDS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC MAY SEE TEMPERATURES 12-16 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

I will have the weekly planner and local forecast discussion out a little later.

Snowman