Major Winter Storm

Area Forecast Discussion

Middle Tennessee Basin

January 26, 2009 4am

Introduction

The upcoming week is going to bring some very extreme winter weather to portions of Middle Tennessee. Forecasting this upcoming week has been more than a challenge. This forecast continues to change by the hour, and I am afraid this event has the potential to continue to surprise until its over. For now, will go with my best gut feeling as far as precipitation types and accumulations. Will also review what Watches/Warnings have been issued by the national weather service.

Forecast Discussion

Remaining cold arctic air associated with high pressure to the north is going to become embattled with some warmer, more moist air aloft flowing up from the gulf of mexico. This is going to create periods of freezing rain and sleet for portions of northern and northwestern middle tennessee. Central and southern middle tennessee should stay mostly in the rain category, but we will have to monitor surface temperatures just in case models are underdoing cold shallow air. The farther northwest in middle tennessee that you travel, the worst the conditions will be. A damaging ice storm is set to cripple portions of missouri, southern kentucky, northern arkansas, and northwestern tennessee. Loss of power is something that may become an issue on into the day tuesday. Residents in the above area's need to finish preparations today for a damaging and possibly lengthy ice storm this week.

Review of Watches, Warnings, and Advisories

Ice Storm Warning: Benton, Carroll, Henry, Houtson, Montgomery, Robertson, Stewart, Sumner

Freezing Rain Advisory: Cheatham, Clay, Davidson, Decatur, Dickson, Fentress, Humpherys, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Smith, Trousdale, Wilson

Volunteer Weather Accumulation Prediction:

Ice Update

The Ice Storm Warning has been cancelled and replaced with a Winter Storm Warning for the threat of freezing rain and sleet instead of all freezing rain. The freezing rain advisory remains in effect and unchanged. Just one school closing as of 11:30pm, though I expect that list to grow overnight into the early morning hours as roads become dangerously slick.

Snowman

Icy Update

Just some light rain falling across most of Middle Tennessee this afternoon as we await what could be a cold icy night. Ice Storm Warnings are up for the extreme northwestern corners of the midstate and Freezing Rain Advisories lineup along I-40 from about Nashville and southwest. Numerous schools have closed early today. That list can be found at the top of the page scrolling constantly. Once we start getting word of which schools will be closed for Tuesday, we will get that list going. Things are going to go down hill from here. By 2pm this afternoon areas northwest of Nashville could begin to see freezing rain and sleet. That transition line will slowly then work its way southeast throughout the evening. How far the cold air intrudes the mid-state will determine exactly how severe the icing will be. Please stay advised of the latest weather conditons as weather this afternoon and evening into tonight looks to turn dangerous and possibly life threatening.

Snowman

Ice Storm Update

STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-BENTON-HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-

400 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008...

ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY. THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. THIS ADVISORY IS FOR NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE... INCLUDINGDOVER...CLARKSVILLE...CAMDEN AND DICKSON. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND MUCH COLDER AIR TODAY. BY LATE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO FREEZING IN MOST AREAS...AND RAIN MAY START TO FREEZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES. ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH ON EXPOSED SURFACES BY LATE TONIGHT. ICY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON MOST EXPOSED SURFACES...ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY TUESDAY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE FREEZING. AN ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. COMMERCE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND WINDS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SNAPPED POWER LINES AND FALLING TREE BRANCHES THAT ADD TO THE DANGER.

SUMNER-MACON-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-

400 AM CST MON DEC 15 2008...

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ROLL THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AND BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MANY AREAS DROPPING TO AROUND FREEZING BY MIDNIGHT. FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL PRODUCE ICE ACCUMULATION OF ONE TENTH INCH IN SOME AREAS. A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.