Bitter Cold Outbreak Possible?

So this is going to be the story that we will be discussing no doubt for the next week or so. The coldest weather of the winter season and this new year looks to blow into the Tennessee Valley by mid to late week of the upcoming week. Winter precipitation looks to be limited as the cold air ushers into the area, however, a few light events cannot be ruled out. Late next week into the weekend could be another story though as we may see a system bring a little more than flurries. Stay tuned for more information on this possible cold weather outbreak.

00z Model Update

Models still showing a chance of some wintry tricks for this coming weekend into early next week. It is still too early to pinpoint anything down as this continue to flip flop. By Saturday, we may be looking at warmer and dryer weather, you just never know this far out. I will update again in the morning with what the latest is. Goodnight and God Bless.

Wintry Weekend?

After Thanksgiving is over, everyone will be headed back home. Most folks head home on the Sunday after Thanksgiving. For those traveling through Middle Tennessee then, some interesting weather could take place. Now, models are still all over the place for this weekend. The closer we get, the better idea we will get of what to expect. At this time most models are advertising much colder weather arriving in time for the end of November and beginning of December. I think the turn to colder weather is a sure thing. The question remains if enough moisture will be present for some of the wintry stuff to fall. Looking at soundings from Nashville as well as Memphis, some sleet and snow are quite possible. But we are still several days away from this system and well hopes just do not need to get high just to be crushed. We are very early in the winter season. Meteorogically, winter has not even arrived yet, so everyone needs to be patient and understand that if this system does not pan out, the following two weeks look favorable for some wintry weather threats. One of them will eventually get us. More information tonight as the new 00z models come in. Stay Tuned and become a volunteerweather blog follower. Check it out on the right side of the page for more information. Also take time and vote in our poll to the right. God Bless.

Ahh! Winter Forecasting!

You know you love it. You began to think you have a handle on the things and weather models flip on ya. So here is the first significant winter forecasting situation this season for me. Sunday, I was looking at an interesting scenario developing for the first of December. Then the models try to tell me that we are going to be a little moisture starved. Yesterday, I took the rain/snow mix out of the forecast. Then today, the National Weather Service in Nashville and Huntsville jumps on the scenario I was jumping on.

End Result: I think either way, moisture is going to be limited unless something changes. This is probaly not the accumulating type of winter storm, but more of a taste of winter that ushers in a pattern that will be more conducive to bringing a significant winter storm system. Check back in just a few for an updated weekly planner.

Thoughts for Early December

Cold Weather Continues

It is still only November and Cold Weather has had a grip on the midstate for quite some time. The pattern continues to look chilly as we head into the end of the month as well as into December. For the first time in a long time, I am actually excited about the forecast going forward into the first of December. I actually think the chance for much below normal temperatures is there. The question will be if we can get some moisture to meet up with the cold. I seriously think that by the end of December, we will have had our first accumulating winter event in Middle Tennessee. Stay tuned for further updates.

Davis Nolan Goes For Round Two

I was watching the local news this evening and noticed that Davis Nolan was forecasting snow flurries once again. Now, usually I just brush that off as a meteorologist in Tennessee trying to catch a few extra viewers. However, a week ago, Davis was the only meteorologist in Middle Tennessee to jump on the idea of flurries for this weekend. And well lets see, many counties across Middle Tennessee reported flurries or even a dusting of snow this weekend. So could Davis Nolan be on to something again? Here is a look at the latest of Nolan's thinkings.

Another strong front should push through by Saturday with good rain chances
late Friday, Friday night and Saturday, and once again, we have a chance to see
snow flurries later Saturday through Saturday night. Sure seems like
someone pushed the “winter” button!

Winter Weather Awareness 08

National Weather Service Winter Weather Awareness Brochure

Below are some key terms and winter weather products that we need to review before winter arrives this year.

Winter Storm Warning: Issued when hazardous winter weather in the form of heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet is imminent or occurring. Winter Storm Warnings are usually issued 12 to 24 hours before the event is expected to begin.
Winter Storm Watch: Alerts the public to the possibility of a blizzard, heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet. Winter Storm Watches are usually issued 12 to 48 hours before the beginning of a Winter Storm.
Winter Storm Outlook: Issued prior to a Winter Storm Watch. The Outlook is given when forecasters believe winter storm conditions are possible and are usually issued 3 to 5 days in advance of a winter storm.
Blizzard Warning: Issued for sustained or gusty winds of 35 mph or more, and falling or blowing snow creating visibilities at or below ¼ mile; these conditions should persist for at least three hours.
Wind Chill Warning: Issued when wind chill temperatures are expected to be hazardous to life within several minutes of exposure.
Wind Chill Advisory: Issued when wind chill temperatures are expected to be a significant inconvenience to life with prolonged exposure, and, if caution is not exercised, could lead to hazardous exposure.
Winter Weather Advisories: Issued for accumulations of snow, freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and sleet which will cause significant inconveniences and, if caution is not exercised, could lead to life-threatening situations.
Dense Fog Advisory: Issued when fog will reduce visibility to ¼ mile or less over a widespread area.
Snow Flurries: Light snow falling for short durations. No accumulation or light dusting is all that is expected.
Snow Showers: Snow falling at varying intensities for brief periods of time. Some accumulation is possible.
Snow Squalls: Brief, intense snow showers accompanied by strong, gusty winds. Accumulation may be significant. Snow squalls are best known in the Great Lakes region.
Blowing Snow: Wind-driven snow that reduces visibility and causes significant drifting. Blowing snow may be snow that is falling and/or loose snow on the ground picked up by the wind.
Sleet: Rain drops that freeze into ice pellets before reaching the ground. Sleet usually bounces when hitting a surface and does not stick to objects. However, it can accumulate like snow and cause a hazard to motorists.
Freezing Rain: Rain that falls onto a surface with a temperature below freezing. This causes it to freeze to surfaces, such as trees, cars, and roads, forming a coating or glaze of ice. Even small accumulations of ice can cause a significant hazard.

Flurries Still On

As you can tell, I did not put flurries in the forecast for next weekend. If the models do not change by tomorrow evening, then I will prolly go ahead and begin to forecast a few flurries along with much colder weather for next weekend. In any respect, the weather pattern that is setting up for the end of November and start of December is an exciting one, with below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation expected.

WKRN News 2 went out on a limb this evening and called for rain/flurries next Saturday with a high of 42. Im not that brave. Not yet anyways. :)

Snow In Middle Tennessee?

Could it be possible. Snow flurries and snow showers for Middle Tennessee?

Well after reviewing the models for the past couple of runs, there is certainly a interesting scenario setting up for next weekend. After we have a big cold front push through with lots of rain and storms, a northwest flow will set up. Next weekend, a disturbance could ride down along the northwest flow and actually bring a few wet snowflakes.

Now, the real question is, Do I put it into the forecast this afternoon. I am still undecided and will likely wait a few hours more before publishing this afternoon's Weekly Planner. It is that time of year when we typically start seeing flurries on the backsides of systems, so it is not unrealistic for this type of scenario to be showing up on the models, and its only 8 Days out.

We shall see.

Freeze Warnings Over

...A KILLING FREEZE HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE MID STATE...WEDNESDAY`S EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 20S AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE WAS A 21 DEGREE READING IN THE CROSSVILLE AREA. ALTHOUGH THURSDAY`S EARLY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WERE NOT QUITE AS COLD AS WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS...MINIMUM TEMPERATURES STILL WERE AROUND OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. BECAUSE A KILLING FREEZE HAS NOW OCCURRED ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...NO ADDITIONAL FREEZE WARNINGS OR FROST ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED AGAIN UNTIL NEXT SPRING.

Courtesy of National Weather Service- Nashville

Freeze Warning Extended

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT
THURSDAY...

A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING. A
FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY.

EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MOST OF MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SOME RURAL AND LOW LYING AREAS HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED
A HARD FREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY
AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

A COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION...AND NURSERY AND GREENHOUSE MANAGERS SHOULD
CONCLUDE ALL NECESSARY PREPARATIONS FOR PROTECTING TENDER
VEGETATION.

Early Snow

Just as forecasted here last night, the eastern sections of middle Tennessee saw some flurries and light snow. It was enough to briefly coat some surfaces this morning in places on the Cumberland Plateau. It is just amazing that we have our first report of snow, and its only October 28.

Cold Air and Few Flurries?

Winter Blast Slams Middle Tennessee

Cold Weather is Upon Us

Courtesy of Nashville NWS.

Freeze Watch

FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS
ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WATCH MEANS FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE
CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

$$BOYD/MASSIE

Frost Advisory For All Middle Tennessee

The national weather service in Nashville, TN has issued a Frost Advisory for all of Middle Tennessee for Monday morning, 4am-8am. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 30's. Sensitive outdoor plants will likely not survive.

Frost Advisory for Plateau

A frost advisory has been issued for tomorrow morning. 4am-8am. The counties below are the counties included in the Frost Advisory.

MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-

Patchy Frost For Some Tonight

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

TNZ009>011-031>034-065-066-078>080-182230-
MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...
GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...ALLARDT...
SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...FAIRFIELD GLADE...MCMINNVILLE...
TRACY CITY...ALTAMONT...COALMONT...SPENCER
318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2008

...PATCHY FROST EXPECTED IN THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION AND
EXTREME NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE OVERNIGHT...

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL HELP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S IN THE CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU...AND LOW LYING AREAS OF NORTHEAST MIDDLE TENNESSEE. PATCHY
FROST IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.