Caution: As is often the case in Middle Tennessee, Winter events are very hard to come by. What the models are saying now and what will happen three days from now could be two totally different things. Though there is beginning to become some consensus between the different models, lots of things could still change and effect this forecast for better or for worse. Check back often for more updates on this impending winter weather system approaching our area for Sunday Night into Monday.
There is currently two low pressure centers depicted on the models. One to the north and one to the south. Our wrap around moisture will be what could give us a little wintry weather. The lows will help to pull down cold air from the northwest that should meet up with moisture that is departing the area as well as some wrap around backlash precipitation.
Here is a look at WinterCast. You can see that Sunday night, as the cold air starts to arrive, our rain showers should start to convert to a wintry mix of rain/snow showers possibly mixed with some sleet at times. Surfaces temperatures should still be above freezing for the most part.
By Monday morning, the wintry mix in my opinion begins to change over to some light snow showers. Areas along the Alabama border can still expect a mix at this point.
By Monday afternoon, any remaining wrap around moisture will be in the form of snow. For the most part, I believe the snow will be light. However, if we get any convective snow showers to set up, some periods of brief moderate snow can not be ruled out.
Accumulation is not a major issue at this time. I am going to stay on light side with accumulations at this point. I do believe however that some light accumulation is possible, of course for those favored areas on the Plateau.
Check back tomorrow for another update.
Snowman
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