Saturday, December 13, 2008

Forecast Discussion

Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee
December 13, 2008
Volunteer Weather

Short Term: Tonight and Sunday
Clouds will hang tough tonight keeping temperatures above freezing tonight. Temperatures will range from 34 to 39 degrees across Middle Tennessee. Sunday will start a little chilly but warm dramatically on a south wind. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50's on Sunday. Clouds will be a thing of the day however. By Sunday night, rain starts to break out across the area. Lows will not get much below 50 degrees however.

Mid Term: Monday-Wednesday
A good chance of rain Monday through Wednesday as a front will waver back and forth across the mid-state. This wavering front will play havoc on our forecast for our extreme northwestern corner of the midstate. Monday night temperatures could flirt with freezing in Stewart, Houston, Humpherys, Montgomery, Dickson, and Benton counties. Though temperatures at the surface in those locations will be close or at freezing, the layers of atmosphere just a few thousand feet above the earths surface will be too warm for snow or sleet. In a case of that nature we tend to see what precipitation does fall freeze upon contact with surfaces that are at or below freezing. Models do not always handle this type of shallow cold air event very well. That freezing line could fluctuate and push further to the south if the models are underdoing the strength of the cold air. No winter weather products have been issued for our area by the national weather service as of yet. Will continue to monitor and issue SWO for those area's with greatest threat of being impacted. The front pushes back further north on Tuesday and Wednesday and warms everyone back up and keeps all chances of precipitation in the form of liquid.

Long Term: Thursday-Saturday
This period will remain wet. With the cold air remaining to the northwest of the midstate, I expect just liquid sunshine during this event. :)

Snowman
5:30pm

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