Winter Forecast

Crossville, Tenessee: Average Snowfall 7.7" Projected Snowfall 12"-17"
Dickson, Tennessee: Average Snowfall 5.4" Projected Snowfall 9"-13"
Lewisburg, Tennessee: Average Snowfall 3.2" Projected Snowfall 7"-11"
Monterey, Tennessee: Average Snowfall 20.5" Projected Snowfall 24"-28"
Nashville, Tennessee: Average Snowfall 8.3" Projected Snowfall 12"-16"
Pulaski, Tennessee: Average Snowfall 2.8" Projected Snowfall 7"-11"
Tullahoma, Tennessee: Average Snowfall 3.9" Projected Snowfall 8"-12"

Sunday Weather

Wintry Mix Tonight

A little bit of some rain showers and snow showers mixed tonight. However, the temperatures across most of Middle Tennessee should remain slightly above freezing, so no major problems are expected. Some of our south eastern and eastern counties though could have a slight accumulation of freezing rain or sleet this evening. Use caution if traveling tonight.

Interesting Long Term

An interesting forecast discussion out this afternoon from the national weather service in Nashville. Here is the long term discussion from Nashville. Warning: I am in No way putting any wintry weather in my weekly planner at this time. 7 Days out is Way to far to include the 's' word in my forecast.

GOOD CDFNT PASSES THRU
ON SUN. DRY NE FLOW W/ STRONG HI PRES CNTRD OVER
UPPER MIDWEST MON. AS GFS AND EURO BOTH
DRY...TOOK POPS OUT FOR MON.
MON NITE A SYSTEM LWR MS VLY
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES NNE TO NEAR BWG BY 18Z TUE. LOOK LIKE A WET SYSTEM FOR
MON NITE AND TUE...AND WENT WITH LIKELY POPS BOTH PERIODS.
TUE NITE AND BEYOND LOOKS INTERESTING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME WRAP-AROUND
ACCUMULATING SNOWS. STAY TUNED.

January Looks To Bring Pattern Change

As we head through this week, we will be trying to track down the next possible winter weather scenario for Middle Tennessee. Beginning later this week, the cold air will return to the mid-south. The second week of January looks to bringdown arctic air out of Canada. The GFS modeling has been consistant with this now for several days running and has been very consistent. Below is a look at some upcoming climate outlooks.

The above map shows the chance of a colder than normal period for the range of 8-14 days from now. This would be next week. As you can tell, this map is showing a good possibility of much below normal temperatures for the 8-14 day period.

The above map shows us that we will also have a higher than normal chance of precipitation during the 8-14 day period. These are exciting signals for the beginning of January. Lets hope everything continues to trend this way, and we will have some accumulating snowfall to tend with in the Middle Tennessee Basin.

Messy Winter Weather for Nation as Holiday Week Begins

CNN) -- Snowstorms and icy conditions on Sunday have delayed flights across
the northern United States, causing havoc on roads and leaving thousands without
electricity.

At least one death has been attributed to storms that hit
all over the country in the past week. A 44-year-old Massachusetts man died
Friday when a tree limb weighed down by snow fell on him, authorities
said.
Forecasters say there's more cold weather to come.
Authorities urged
motorists in north-central and northeast Iowa to stay off roads because of poor
visibility caused by blowing snow. Authorities prohibited tow trucks from
operating on U.S. Highway 20, near the border with Minnesota, because of
concerns the tow trucks would get stuck.
The National Weather Service has
issued a blizzard warning for the area until 6 p.m. CT and residents may have to
hunker down in below-zero weather.
Blizzard warnings were also in effect for
parts of northern Maine, northern Illinois and southern Minnesota.
The Minnesota Department of Transportation
ordered snowplow drivers off the road until Sunday morning in 13 southwest
counties, because of poor visibility, blowing snow and wind gusts up to 40 mph,
an agency spokeswoman said Saturday.

The western U.S. has also been hit
with the cold blast. Parts of Washington saw 2 to 3 feet of snow last week. On
Friday, two buses carrying 80 people collided on a road in Seattle and crashed
through a metal railing, where they hung over a freeway for several hours before
two trucks rescued them.
The storm system is expected to move eastward, where
people are already dealing with air traffic delays and power outages brought on
by snowfall earlier this week.
"This is essentially the reincarnation of the
same storm that brought the heavy snow to parts of California, southern Nevada
and northern Arizona," Steve Corfidi, lead forecaster with the weather service's
Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, told CNNRadio.

-Story Courtesy of CNN

Wintry Tricks

Thursday, a upper level low will move across areas to the south of Middle Tennessee. With some colder air possibly being in place and some precipitation breaking out, we could be in for some wintry weather. At this time however, as mentioned in the Forecast discussion early this morning, there is not enough confidence in this forecast yet to put it into the forecast. We will check todays model runs and consider a forecast tonight that includes a little wintry precip. Here is a look though at what the models are saying right now. Again, the above map Is Not A Forecast. This is just a fun look at what the models have printed out today in terms of snowfall.

Snow Later This Week?

I still think some in the southeast or mid atlantic will see some significant wintery weather by weeks end. The models are going to have to trend more northwest for Middle Tennessee to get in on very much more than a dusting, but the mountains of East Tennessee into North Carolina and Virginia look like the sweet spot right now. I will continue to watch it though, and will post more information if things change.