Short Term Forecast, Middle Tennessee502 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2009 .NOW... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 65...THROUGH 7 PM. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM ONE TENTH TO AROUND ONE HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND ONE HALF TO AROUND ONE INCH.
Showing posts with label Forecast Discussion. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forecast Discussion. Show all posts
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Showers, Whats New
Monday, September 14, 2009
Rain To Set In
This week is going to be one of many umbrella days. A slow moving low pressure system will slowly be working its way northeastward over the next several days bringing several rounds of showers and locally heavy rainfall to the mid south. Over the next five days, most of middle tennessee could receive two to three inches of rainfall. Do not believe flooding will be a major issue at this time, but will have to continue to monitor the forecast for some minor flash flooding issues. Temperatures generally this week will stay in the upper seventies during the afternoon. Looking at the extended forecast into later this month, a more northwesterly flow should usher in some cooler fall type weather as autumn arrives in Tennessee.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
Forecast Discussion
Volunteer Weather Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee Basin Area
January 31, 2009 6pm
The latest models have been a little more than wacky. We have went from a major accumulating snowfall, to little if any accumulation except for possibly the most southern and eastern sections of our area. I still am hesistant to lean one way or another officially on a final call on this upcoming storm system. I did publish a first call this morning and will stick to that right now. You can see that map in the below post. I think in the grey area a slight chance of light snow accumulation is possible of prolly a dusting. I think in the blue area a moderate chance of light snow accumulation is possible of prolly half inch to one inch. Due to recent warm temperatures and the rainfall before the changeover, confidence of any snow accumulating is rather low, but will leave current outlook as is. A clipper brings some snow showers on Tuesday and could bring a dusting of snow area wide. After several cold days to begin the week, the end of the week will warm up and stay dry.
Snowman 5:44pm
Middle Tennessee Basin Area
January 31, 2009 6pm
The latest models have been a little more than wacky. We have went from a major accumulating snowfall, to little if any accumulation except for possibly the most southern and eastern sections of our area. I still am hesistant to lean one way or another officially on a final call on this upcoming storm system. I did publish a first call this morning and will stick to that right now. You can see that map in the below post. I think in the grey area a slight chance of light snow accumulation is possible of prolly a dusting. I think in the blue area a moderate chance of light snow accumulation is possible of prolly half inch to one inch. Due to recent warm temperatures and the rainfall before the changeover, confidence of any snow accumulating is rather low, but will leave current outlook as is. A clipper brings some snow showers on Tuesday and could bring a dusting of snow area wide. After several cold days to begin the week, the end of the week will warm up and stay dry.
Snowman 5:44pm
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Forecast Discussion
Volunteer Weather Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee Basin Area
January 29, 2009 4pm
Ahh, what a fun and interesting upcoming period of weather. The next several days are going to test the patience of local forecasters as a major winter storm will form somewhere east of the Mississippi river. I am going to tell you upfront that I will not make a accumulation call until late tomorrow night or saturday morning. At this time I would be willing to say minor accumulations of snowfall will be possible across the area, but that forecast would likely be too conservative.
A low pressure system will develop north of the gom and will travel northeast across southeast alabama, central georgia, and then up into the northeast. Rain will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning. By monday afternoon, temperature profiles will be cold enough for all snow, sometimes moderate to heavy across a large area of west and central tennessee, north alabama, kentucky and further north. Models are still not completely in agreement with the exact track of this low pressure system. As the track changes, so does precipitation types and accumulation amounts. However, there is growing confidence that a major winter storm, mainly snow, will effect Middle Tennessee early next week and local residents and emergency planners should keep updated on this potential snow storm.
Snowman 3:36pm
-Weekly Planner has been issued.
Middle Tennessee Basin Area
January 29, 2009 4pm
Ahh, what a fun and interesting upcoming period of weather. The next several days are going to test the patience of local forecasters as a major winter storm will form somewhere east of the Mississippi river. I am going to tell you upfront that I will not make a accumulation call until late tomorrow night or saturday morning. At this time I would be willing to say minor accumulations of snowfall will be possible across the area, but that forecast would likely be too conservative.
A low pressure system will develop north of the gom and will travel northeast across southeast alabama, central georgia, and then up into the northeast. Rain will be possible Sunday night into Monday morning. By monday afternoon, temperature profiles will be cold enough for all snow, sometimes moderate to heavy across a large area of west and central tennessee, north alabama, kentucky and further north. Models are still not completely in agreement with the exact track of this low pressure system. As the track changes, so does precipitation types and accumulation amounts. However, there is growing confidence that a major winter storm, mainly snow, will effect Middle Tennessee early next week and local residents and emergency planners should keep updated on this potential snow storm.
Snowman 3:36pm
-Weekly Planner has been issued.
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Forecast Discussion
Volunteer Weather Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee Basin Area
January 28, 2009 11pm
Things are finally calming down after this past little system that brought snow to the central and northern portions of Middle Tennessee. A couple days of well deserved rest before mother nature decides to tease the basin area with another wintry weather threat. A clipper thursday night into friday morning could bring a few flurries or snow showers to the eastern half of the area, though not expecting any accumulations at this time. The weekend then looks dry with mild conditions expected on sunday before rain moves in late sunday. Monday brings back a wintry mix, and possible changeover to an accumulating snowfall sometime Monday afternoon or evening. This system bears much watching the next several days as models are quite confident that a significant winter storm will occur somewhere in the deep south early next week. Along with the threat of a winter storm, much colder temperatures will move back into the area for most of next week.
Snowman 11:13pm
-Weekly Planner has been issued.
-Sign up for weather email alerts and the weekly Volunteer Weather Newsletter. We have purchased some new software and hope to start sending out alerts and newsletters by Friday. Email me and simply type "email alert request" in the subject line. You will then start receiving our email alerts. volunteerwx@gmail.com
Middle Tennessee Basin Area
January 28, 2009 11pm
Things are finally calming down after this past little system that brought snow to the central and northern portions of Middle Tennessee. A couple days of well deserved rest before mother nature decides to tease the basin area with another wintry weather threat. A clipper thursday night into friday morning could bring a few flurries or snow showers to the eastern half of the area, though not expecting any accumulations at this time. The weekend then looks dry with mild conditions expected on sunday before rain moves in late sunday. Monday brings back a wintry mix, and possible changeover to an accumulating snowfall sometime Monday afternoon or evening. This system bears much watching the next several days as models are quite confident that a significant winter storm will occur somewhere in the deep south early next week. Along with the threat of a winter storm, much colder temperatures will move back into the area for most of next week.
Snowman 11:13pm
-Weekly Planner has been issued.
-Sign up for weather email alerts and the weekly Volunteer Weather Newsletter. We have purchased some new software and hope to start sending out alerts and newsletters by Friday. Email me and simply type "email alert request" in the subject line. You will then start receiving our email alerts. volunteerwx@gmail.com
Monday, January 26, 2009
Major Winter Storm
Area Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee Basin
January 26, 2009 4am
Introduction
The upcoming week is going to bring some very extreme winter weather to portions of Middle Tennessee. Forecasting this upcoming week has been more than a challenge. This forecast continues to change by the hour, and I am afraid this event has the potential to continue to surprise until its over. For now, will go with my best gut feeling as far as precipitation types and accumulations. Will also review what Watches/Warnings have been issued by the national weather service.
Forecast Discussion
Remaining cold arctic air associated with high pressure to the north is going to become embattled with some warmer, more moist air aloft flowing up from the gulf of mexico. This is going to create periods of freezing rain and sleet for portions of northern and northwestern middle tennessee. Central and southern middle tennessee should stay mostly in the rain category, but we will have to monitor surface temperatures just in case models are underdoing cold shallow air. The farther northwest in middle tennessee that you travel, the worst the conditions will be. A damaging ice storm is set to cripple portions of missouri, southern kentucky, northern arkansas, and northwestern tennessee. Loss of power is something that may become an issue on into the day tuesday. Residents in the above area's need to finish preparations today for a damaging and possibly lengthy ice storm this week.
Review of Watches, Warnings, and Advisories
Ice Storm Warning: Benton, Carroll, Henry, Houtson, Montgomery, Robertson, Stewart, Sumner
Freezing Rain Advisory: Cheatham, Clay, Davidson, Decatur, Dickson, Fentress, Humpherys, Jackson, Macon, Overton, Pickett, Smith, Trousdale, Wilson
Volunteer Weather Accumulation Prediction:
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Saturday Discussion
Middle Tennessee Basin Area
Regional Forecast Discussion
January 24, 2009 6:00pm
Weather will be quiet tonight with partly cloudy conditions and temperatures dropping back into the 20's. For Sunday, clouds will move in late ahead of the next weather maker for middle tennessee. Rain showers will break out early Tuesday morning with a overrunning event. A significant ice storm can be expected further to the north across parts of west Kentucky. At this time, confidence is too low to include any wintry precipitation in the forecast. Will keep all moisture as rain currently. We are still a little ways out from this event. Also NWS in memphis is now mentioning a possible watch for wintry weather which could be issued tomorrow sometime. Some icy weather may slip into our nw corner but at this time, will leave out of forecast. Things then warm up Wednesday through the rest of the week and keep everything as just rain showers. No major warm ups or cool downs in the near future.
Snowman
5:55pm
Weekly Planner has been issued.
Regional Forecast Discussion
January 24, 2009 6:00pm
Weather will be quiet tonight with partly cloudy conditions and temperatures dropping back into the 20's. For Sunday, clouds will move in late ahead of the next weather maker for middle tennessee. Rain showers will break out early Tuesday morning with a overrunning event. A significant ice storm can be expected further to the north across parts of west Kentucky. At this time, confidence is too low to include any wintry precipitation in the forecast. Will keep all moisture as rain currently. We are still a little ways out from this event. Also NWS in memphis is now mentioning a possible watch for wintry weather which could be issued tomorrow sometime. Some icy weather may slip into our nw corner but at this time, will leave out of forecast. Things then warm up Wednesday through the rest of the week and keep everything as just rain showers. No major warm ups or cool downs in the near future.
Snowman
5:55pm
Weekly Planner has been issued.
Friday, January 23, 2009
Friday Discussion
Volunteer Weather Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee Basin Area
January 23, 2009 3:30pm
Showers will be possible tonight with much colder temperatures moving into the basin area for the weekend. Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will range around either side of 40 degrees. Monday night, rain moves back into the area. Interesting scenario for Monday night into Tuesday morning as cold air settles just to the northwest of the area. Models at this time keep majority of the area, especially south and east of Clarksville, as a all rain event. Those residents in the extreme northwest corner of Middle Tennessee could have some icing issues Monday night into early Tuesday. Will continue to monitor that in latter forecasts, though confidence in anything but rain is rather low. Warmer air then moves into the area for mid to late week with scattered on and off showers with the overrunning pattern we will be stuck in. Temperatures will stay seasonal throughout the entire period.
Weekly Planner has not been posted due to server issues. Will try to get that posted sometime this evening.
Middle Tennessee Basin Area
January 23, 2009 3:30pm
Showers will be possible tonight with much colder temperatures moving into the basin area for the weekend. Highs on both Saturday and Sunday will range around either side of 40 degrees. Monday night, rain moves back into the area. Interesting scenario for Monday night into Tuesday morning as cold air settles just to the northwest of the area. Models at this time keep majority of the area, especially south and east of Clarksville, as a all rain event. Those residents in the extreme northwest corner of Middle Tennessee could have some icing issues Monday night into early Tuesday. Will continue to monitor that in latter forecasts, though confidence in anything but rain is rather low. Warmer air then moves into the area for mid to late week with scattered on and off showers with the overrunning pattern we will be stuck in. Temperatures will stay seasonal throughout the entire period.
Weekly Planner has not been posted due to server issues. Will try to get that posted sometime this evening.
Monday, January 12, 2009
Afternoon Forecast Package
Alot to talk about this afternoon so lets get right to it. The first thing of interest to me is the clipper cold front system that will drop through the area late tonight into Tuesday. There is not a ton of moisture to work with this system, but I do believe we could see some minor accumulations. I will not update the accumulation map at this time as I think my totals are pretty close to what I expect to see. I am watching the system however upstream and will update that forecast as need be. The much bigger story this week will be the brutal cold with this Arctic Blast of Winter. Thursday night will usher in the coldest air of the season and the year with lows dropping down into the single digits! Folks need to prepare early this week for the brutally cold temperatures that will arrive later in the week. Take a look at the weekly planner for that latest on how cold it will be. A little snow is possible with that system that moves into the area on Thursday night but nothing of significance at this time. The last item of interest is a system that will be getting together toward the end of the 7 day period. Sunday and Monday could bring some very interesting weather to the Tennessee Valley. This system has the chance to bring significant accumulating winter weather if things continue to trend the way there are. My eyes will watch that system throughout the week for the very latest updates on that system. Again, a update on snowfall accumulations will be possible a little later this afternoon if something changes but as of now, I think it is ok. That map is in a lower post.
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
Forecast Package
Forecast DiscussionMiddle Tennessee
December 31, 2008
Short Term- Tonight- Thursday:
Tonights weather will be quite chilly. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 20's across the middle Tennessee valley. Thursday will be mostly sunny with some high clouds moving in later in the day. Thursday night a warm southerly flow will increase the rain shower chance for some of our southern and eastern counties. Temperatures should remain above freezing, though slightly, to keep everything liquid. Will continue to monitor that forecast tomorrow though to be sure.
Mid Term- Friday- Sunday:
Clouds will hang around for parts of the day on Friday. Temperatures will remain seasonable. Saturday a warm front will lift northward and increase rain chances once again. Some thunder is possible on Saturday night as well as parts of Sunday.
Long Term- Monday- Wednesday:
By monday, a deepening low pressure system over texas will head towards the mid-state. At this time, the latest thinking is that the low will track over Middle Tennessee. In this scenario, wintry weather does not look to be an issue. Much colder air will filter into the area on Tuesday night in wake of the cold front which will pass through the area Tuesday afternoon. If the cold air is able to push far enough south then a little snow could mix in across our northwestern counties, though chance of that happening remains low at this time. Showers will continue into the day on Wednesday will chilly seasonable temperatures.
Snowman
5:30pm
Monday, December 22, 2008
Weekly Planner
Forecast Discussion
December 22, 2008
Middle Tennessee
Short Term: Tonight-Tuesday...
Clouds will be on the increase tonight as a moist southerly flow begins a nice warm up process for the mid-state. Temperatures will fall into the upper teens tonight before they begin to rise on Tuesday. Showers will also begin to break out across our area on Tuesday afternoon and evening. If precip manages to move in before noon on Tuesday, some of that could fall as sleet or freezing rain for our nw counties. However, due to low confidence will not issue SWO at this time. On Tuesday temperatures will warm into the mid 40's and will continue to rise on Tuesday night.
Mid Term: Wednesday-Friday...
Went with 100% chance of rain on Christmas Eve. With highs in the low 60's on Wed. can not rule out a possible thunderstorm. Clears out by Christmas morning with temperatures in the mid to upper 30's as the little ones awake. Christmas night into Friday will bring a few showers before our next best chance of rain.
Long Term: Saturday- Monday...
Cold front moves through during the weekend bringing some more rain to our area. Temperatures will remain at or just above seasonal norms. No Arctic cold in the immediate future.
Snowman
4:48pm
Saturday, December 13, 2008
Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee
December 13, 2008
Volunteer Weather
Short Term: Tonight and Sunday
Clouds will hang tough tonight keeping temperatures above freezing tonight. Temperatures will range from 34 to 39 degrees across Middle Tennessee. Sunday will start a little chilly but warm dramatically on a south wind. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50's on Sunday. Clouds will be a thing of the day however. By Sunday night, rain starts to break out across the area. Lows will not get much below 50 degrees however.
Mid Term: Monday-Wednesday
A good chance of rain Monday through Wednesday as a front will waver back and forth across the mid-state. This wavering front will play havoc on our forecast for our extreme northwestern corner of the midstate. Monday night temperatures could flirt with freezing in Stewart, Houston, Humpherys, Montgomery, Dickson, and Benton counties. Though temperatures at the surface in those locations will be close or at freezing, the layers of atmosphere just a few thousand feet above the earths surface will be too warm for snow or sleet. In a case of that nature we tend to see what precipitation does fall freeze upon contact with surfaces that are at or below freezing. Models do not always handle this type of shallow cold air event very well. That freezing line could fluctuate and push further to the south if the models are underdoing the strength of the cold air. No winter weather products have been issued for our area by the national weather service as of yet. Will continue to monitor and issue SWO for those area's with greatest threat of being impacted. The front pushes back further north on Tuesday and Wednesday and warms everyone back up and keeps all chances of precipitation in the form of liquid.
Long Term: Thursday-Saturday
This period will remain wet. With the cold air remaining to the northwest of the midstate, I expect just liquid sunshine during this event. :)
Middle Tennessee
December 13, 2008
Volunteer Weather
Short Term: Tonight and Sunday
Clouds will hang tough tonight keeping temperatures above freezing tonight. Temperatures will range from 34 to 39 degrees across Middle Tennessee. Sunday will start a little chilly but warm dramatically on a south wind. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 50's on Sunday. Clouds will be a thing of the day however. By Sunday night, rain starts to break out across the area. Lows will not get much below 50 degrees however.
Mid Term: Monday-Wednesday
A good chance of rain Monday through Wednesday as a front will waver back and forth across the mid-state. This wavering front will play havoc on our forecast for our extreme northwestern corner of the midstate. Monday night temperatures could flirt with freezing in Stewart, Houston, Humpherys, Montgomery, Dickson, and Benton counties. Though temperatures at the surface in those locations will be close or at freezing, the layers of atmosphere just a few thousand feet above the earths surface will be too warm for snow or sleet. In a case of that nature we tend to see what precipitation does fall freeze upon contact with surfaces that are at or below freezing. Models do not always handle this type of shallow cold air event very well. That freezing line could fluctuate and push further to the south if the models are underdoing the strength of the cold air. No winter weather products have been issued for our area by the national weather service as of yet. Will continue to monitor and issue SWO for those area's with greatest threat of being impacted. The front pushes back further north on Tuesday and Wednesday and warms everyone back up and keeps all chances of precipitation in the form of liquid.
Long Term: Thursday-Saturday
This period will remain wet. With the cold air remaining to the northwest of the midstate, I expect just liquid sunshine during this event. :)
Snowman
5:30pm
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee
December 11, 2008
Defer to local NWS for more information as multiple WWA are out and icy conditions could become a problem tonight for some. Thanks.
Snowman
4:20pm
Middle Tennessee
December 11, 2008
Defer to local NWS for more information as multiple WWA are out and icy conditions could become a problem tonight for some. Thanks.
Snowman
4:20pm
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
Forecast Discussion Package
Forecast DiscussionMiddle Tennessee
December 10, 2008
Short Term: Tonight-Thursday
A upper level low system is going to play havoc with our forecast over the next 24 hours. Starting tonight, rain will push back into our southern and eastern counties. A flood watch has been issued for those area's by OHX NWS. Once that low swings by tomorrow just to our south, snow could break out across our extreme eastern and southern counties. Many things could change with this type of setup so it is imperative that you keep up to date with this system.
Mid Term: Friday-Sunday
Mostly dry weather. Cool and first but then warms up.
Long Term: Monday-Tuesday
Showers move back in.
Sorry for such short discussion. Busy nowcasting system for tonight and tomorrow.
Snowman
4:00pm
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Forecast Discussion Package
Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee
December 09, 2008
Another update will likely be issued later this evening after the 00z models roll out.
Short Term: Tonight-Wednesday
Heavy rainfall is currently located across West Tennessee and Northern Mississippi and headed this way for this evening into tonight. There could be very heavy rains at times with some isolated flash flooding. There could be a few strong storms tonight, however, any severe weather should stay to our south at this time. Wednesday highs will occur early in the morning and drop thorough out the day. A few wet flakes could be mixed in at times, though no accumulations or problems expected at this time.
Mid Term: Thursday-Saturday
Some interesting weather will occur during this time period. A upper level low now looks to form in the deep south and move across Alabama, and Georgia spreading precipitation northwest on the fringes of our area. This precipitation Thursday night would likely be in the form of some wintry mix, possibly all snow closer to the low. Things will continue to change with this system. The exact track and strength of this system are going to make every difference. This system bears watching and could bring an accumulating snowfall to some parts of Middle Tennessee. Another update later tonight after more model runs to get a better handle on this thing. As we head into the weekend, things begin to clear out and gradually warm up.
Long Term: Sunday- Monday
A trough out west and a ridge in the east should keep the area dry and warm. However, in the far extended a cool down is once again planned.
Snowman
2:48
Forecast Discussion Package
Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee
December 09, 2008
Short Term: Tuesday
Look for showers and thunderstorms to be on the increase today. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will continue into Tonight. Some localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible from this windy weather maker.
Mid Term: Wednesday-Friday
A few showers will still be possible on Wednesday before clearing out on Wednesday night. Highs will be early on Wednesday as temperatures drop throughout the day. Thursday will be dry and cool and Friday, we will be dry as well and temperatures start to moderate. Some models have begun hinting at a bit of precipitation during the latter part of this period, but with the model madness of late, will leave forecast dry for now and evaluate more in the morning.
Long Term: Saturday- Monday
Things will warm up to above average and things will generally stay quiet with a ridge in the east and trough in the west.
Snowman
1am
Monday, December 8, 2008
Dec. 8, 2008 Forecast Package
Forecast Discussion
December 08, 2008
Middle Tennessee
Short Term: Monday...
During the day today expect temperatures to warm up well into the 50's. Moisture return from the gulf will be on the rise and by tonight, rain should start breaking out across the area.
Mid Term: Tuesday-Thursday...
Expect rain and storms on Tuesday. There is potential for some heavy rainfall across our area on Tuesday night. Will highlight that in Special Weather Outlook. By Wednesday arctic air starts to filter into our area. A mixture of rain and snow is possible on Wednesday transitioning to snow on Wednesday night. Any accumulations would likely be confined to the east or southeast. Will continue to monitor latest forecast tracks and define the area of possible wintry weather. Lows on Wednesday night will drop well into the 20's so any leftover moisture on the roadways will likely create hazardous driving conditions. Will not highlight that in SWO as confidence is low. Thursday will be cold but dry.
Long Term: Friday-Monday...
Friday will be chilly and dry. Another system moves into our area on Saturday night into Sunday, but warmer air will be in place so no issues with ptype. Will not discuss much tonight as main focus is on the above time line.
Snowman
1 am
Special Weather Outlook
December 8, 2008
Middle Tennessee
This is a special weather outlook for all of middle Tennessee concerning the heavy rainfall potential that consists for Tuesday night. A low pressure system will slide across northwest Tennessee and bring copious amounts of rainfall to the Middle Tennessee area. Flash Flood Guidance values suggest that some isolated flash flooding could take place, especially across areas close to the Tennessee river. Would not be suprised if Nashville NWS has to issue FFW.
Snowman 1am
Friday, December 5, 2008
Dec. 5, 2008
Forecast Discussion
December 5, 2008
Middle Tennessee
Short Term: Today- Saturday
Going to be a chilly day out there today with most area's struggling to make it out of the 30's. At least it will be dry though. Tonight, the bottom drops out once again and temperatures will drop down into the upper teens and lower twenties. Saturday, a clipper will swing by to our northeast and bring us cooler weather and a few clouds. Cant rule out a few light rain/snow showers for the Cumberland Plateau Saturday night but nothing significant expected.
Mid Term: Sunday-Wednesday
In the wake of the alberta clipper, Sunday will be another cold day with highs mainly in the thirties. Monday will be warmer with highs getting into the 40's with low 50's possible along the Alabama border. Tuesday, as moisture pushes up from the gulf and gets some showers and rain going, temps will warm up into the 50's for most area's of middle Tennessee! Wednesday, cooler air will start to filter into the area with highs only in the 40's once again.
Long Term: Thursday-Saturday
Forecast confidence in the mid term is bad enough, not going to try to forecast much in the long term right now. Thursday-Saturday looks mainly dry at this point with seasonal temperatures.
December 5, 2008
Middle Tennessee
Short Term: Today- Saturday
Going to be a chilly day out there today with most area's struggling to make it out of the 30's. At least it will be dry though. Tonight, the bottom drops out once again and temperatures will drop down into the upper teens and lower twenties. Saturday, a clipper will swing by to our northeast and bring us cooler weather and a few clouds. Cant rule out a few light rain/snow showers for the Cumberland Plateau Saturday night but nothing significant expected.
Mid Term: Sunday-Wednesday
In the wake of the alberta clipper, Sunday will be another cold day with highs mainly in the thirties. Monday will be warmer with highs getting into the 40's with low 50's possible along the Alabama border. Tuesday, as moisture pushes up from the gulf and gets some showers and rain going, temps will warm up into the 50's for most area's of middle Tennessee! Wednesday, cooler air will start to filter into the area with highs only in the 40's once again.
Long Term: Thursday-Saturday
Forecast confidence in the mid term is bad enough, not going to try to forecast much in the long term right now. Thursday-Saturday looks mainly dry at this point with seasonal temperatures.
Snowman
9:00am
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Dec. 4, 2008
Forecast Discussion
December 4, 2008
Middle Tennessee
Short Term: Tonight-Friday
Very cold tonight. Temperatures will dip well into the low to mid 20's. Any moisture that is left on the roadsways tonight will make for some slick spots. Please be advised of this if you will be traveling across Middle Tennessee tonight or in the early morning hours. Friday will be quite chilly with temperatures staying in the low to mid 40's.
Mid Term: Saturday-Monday
Clipper will miss our area on Saturday but will bring cooler weather for Monday. Weekend looks uneventful with just more chilly below average temperatures. Monday will be dry until late, when some showers could get going with our next storm system on the way for early to mid week.
Long Term: Tuesday-Thursday
Still too early to work out all the kinks in the extended forecast. Heavy rain could be an issue during this time period but for now, will leave that out of the weekly planner. Models are still not impressing me with the thought that they have a handle on this thing quite yet, but the last several model runs have shown much warmer scenario's, so at this time, will leave the extended forecast temps a bit high, and precipitation as all liquid.
December 4, 2008
Middle Tennessee
Short Term: Tonight-Friday
Very cold tonight. Temperatures will dip well into the low to mid 20's. Any moisture that is left on the roadsways tonight will make for some slick spots. Please be advised of this if you will be traveling across Middle Tennessee tonight or in the early morning hours. Friday will be quite chilly with temperatures staying in the low to mid 40's.
Mid Term: Saturday-Monday
Clipper will miss our area on Saturday but will bring cooler weather for Monday. Weekend looks uneventful with just more chilly below average temperatures. Monday will be dry until late, when some showers could get going with our next storm system on the way for early to mid week.
Long Term: Tuesday-Thursday
Still too early to work out all the kinks in the extended forecast. Heavy rain could be an issue during this time period but for now, will leave that out of the weekly planner. Models are still not impressing me with the thought that they have a handle on this thing quite yet, but the last several model runs have shown much warmer scenario's, so at this time, will leave the extended forecast temps a bit high, and precipitation as all liquid.
Snowman
11:50pm
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Dec. 3, 2008
Forecast Discussion
December 03, 2008
Middle Tennessee
Short Term: Tonight-Thursday
Currently, showers and thunderstorms are entering the northwestern areas of middle tennessee. Do not expect any severe weather overnight, but we could see some brief heavy downpours and few claps of thunder along with some gusty winds that could gust up to 25 mph at times tonight. Behind this cold front comes some much colder air for thursday. Still can not rule out a few flurries for tomorrow morning as the rain is coming to an end. Cold thursday night as temps across middle tennessee dip down into the twenties.
Mid Term: Friday-Sunday
This period will be mainly dry and cool. An alberta clipper will slide to our northeast on Saturday and could bring a quick passing shower or snow shower to the cumberland plateau on Saturday night but should not amount to much.
Long Term: Monday-Wednesday
A strong storm system will spin itself up somewhere in the eastern two thirds of the country. If the low pressure system develops south of the area, as depicted by the models now, then the midstate could be in for a nice accumulating winter storm. If the low pressure system moves over us, then heavy rainfall is possible with some wrap around flakes possible. If the system develops further west, then the midstate could be in the warm sector and if the right ingredients come together, the midstate could see some overdue severe weather. Now right now, I am leaning towards a mostly rain scenario for most of Middle Tennessee with a brief changeover at the end of the system. However, this system and track of this low pressure warrants close attention over the next several days especially into this weekend as this storm system comes closer into view. There are many details to be worked out, but something interesting may be in store for middle Tennessee in the near future.
December 03, 2008
Middle Tennessee
Short Term: Tonight-Thursday
Currently, showers and thunderstorms are entering the northwestern areas of middle tennessee. Do not expect any severe weather overnight, but we could see some brief heavy downpours and few claps of thunder along with some gusty winds that could gust up to 25 mph at times tonight. Behind this cold front comes some much colder air for thursday. Still can not rule out a few flurries for tomorrow morning as the rain is coming to an end. Cold thursday night as temps across middle tennessee dip down into the twenties.
Mid Term: Friday-Sunday
This period will be mainly dry and cool. An alberta clipper will slide to our northeast on Saturday and could bring a quick passing shower or snow shower to the cumberland plateau on Saturday night but should not amount to much.
Long Term: Monday-Wednesday
A strong storm system will spin itself up somewhere in the eastern two thirds of the country. If the low pressure system develops south of the area, as depicted by the models now, then the midstate could be in for a nice accumulating winter storm. If the low pressure system moves over us, then heavy rainfall is possible with some wrap around flakes possible. If the system develops further west, then the midstate could be in the warm sector and if the right ingredients come together, the midstate could see some overdue severe weather. Now right now, I am leaning towards a mostly rain scenario for most of Middle Tennessee with a brief changeover at the end of the system. However, this system and track of this low pressure warrants close attention over the next several days especially into this weekend as this storm system comes closer into view. There are many details to be worked out, but something interesting may be in store for middle Tennessee in the near future.
Snowman
10:54pm
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)