Forecast

Wednesday will be the hottest day of the week with afternoon highs pushing into the mid 90's. More storms will break out across the area Wednesday night into Thursday and continue into Friday. Some of those storms could be strong to severe late Wednesday into Thursday. After the cold front clears the mid-state, it is going to feel more like fall than summer with highs this weekend only topping out in the low 80's.

Wet Weekend?

Cooler This Weekend

Weekly Planner

Weekly Planner

Weekly Planner

A low pressure system will slide by to our southeast this weekend and bring a little bit of precipitation but at this time, little if any effects will be felt as a result of the light snow or light wintry mix. I will keep an eye on the system though in case anything does change.

Weekly Planner

Good Friday morning Tennessee. What a chilly morning it is out there across the Middle Tennessee Area. Highs today will struggle to get into the mid 20's. Many school systems across Middle Tennessee have shut thier doors today so be sure to check that complete list on the right side of the page. As for the week ahead, it will remain winter like. Next week, temperatures should warm back closer to normal. The only real precipitation chance will come in here later this weekend. As of right now, I expect only some very light rain or snow showers. This will probaly not amount to much of anything and the better chances seem to be in the southeastern corner of the area. However, this low pressure system and cold front bears watching as a slight shift to the northwest could put parts of middle Tennessee in the zone for a minor snow event. I will take a better look at this later this afternoon and see if anything has changed. The latest models have been coming to better terms on some light snow for our area, especially the se corner, but will ignore that at this time and wait for more consistant model runs before really latching onto this idea.

Weekly Planner

A rather dry week ahead, but some very chilly arctic air will settle into the area by Thursday. Stay tuned for more updates on the dangerous cold headed our way.

Afternoon Forecast Package

Alot to talk about this afternoon so lets get right to it. The first thing of interest to me is the clipper cold front system that will drop through the area late tonight into Tuesday. There is not a ton of moisture to work with this system, but I do believe we could see some minor accumulations. I will not update the accumulation map at this time as I think my totals are pretty close to what I expect to see. I am watching the system however upstream and will update that forecast as need be. The much bigger story this week will be the brutal cold with this Arctic Blast of Winter. Thursday night will usher in the coldest air of the season and the year with lows dropping down into the single digits! Folks need to prepare early this week for the brutally cold temperatures that will arrive later in the week. Take a look at the weekly planner for that latest on how cold it will be. A little snow is possible with that system that moves into the area on Thursday night but nothing of significance at this time. The last item of interest is a system that will be getting together toward the end of the 7 day period. Sunday and Monday could bring some very interesting weather to the Tennessee Valley. This system has the chance to bring significant accumulating winter weather if things continue to trend the way there are. My eyes will watch that system throughout the week for the very latest updates on that system. Again, a update on snowfall accumulations will be possible a little later this afternoon if something changes but as of now, I think it is ok. That map is in a lower post.

Cold and White Weekly Planner

A cold front will sweep across the area late Monday night into the early morning of Tuesday. The big story with that frontal passage will be the colder air that ushers into the air later in the week. Moisture will be somewhat limited with this cold front, but the very cold air will work to squeeze out every bit of moisture there is in the atmosphere. I think for most of Middle Tennessee, a nice dose of flurries can be expected. As for the northeastern corner of the area, a few spots could pick up a quick half inch to inch or more. Widespread accumulation and problems are not expected with this system at this time.

By Thursday, extreme Arctic air funnels into the mid-state. The next 7 days are going to be very winterlike. My eyes are turned on a system for next Sunday into Monday. It has the potential to create a wintry mess for our area with significant accumulations. Though the confidence in that forecast is low at this time, so will not include in the extended forecast. Just a thought about Voo-Doo Land.

Weekly Planner

Weekly Planner

Weekly Planner

Weekly Planner

Weekly Planner

Sorry for the absence today. Had to take a personal day. Here is tonights weekly planner.

Morning Forecast

First thing of interest this morning is the unexpected chance of some very light freezing rain in the northwest corner of Middle Tennessee. Earlier forecasts were holding back the cooler weather quite well. Looking at the early morning observations northwest of Nashville, Clarksville was already down to 33 degrees. Temperatures today will remain mostly steady and slowly rise overnight as we head towards Tuesday. The threat looks to be confined to area's northwest of Nashville. Here is a quick look at this situation via graphic.

The second issue this morning, which I believe is much more imminent and ominous is the threat of flooding rains across middle Tennessee. Those area's in the southeast corner of the area look to receive the most rainfall with the amounts tapering off to the nw. After reviewing the latest forecasted rainfall (see below) and comparing that information with the latest Flash Flood Guidance values, I am very confident that area's of southern and eastern Middle Tennessee WILL exceed flooding values. I would expect a Flood Watch to be issued with the morning forecast from NWS Nashville.

Below is the updated Weekly Planner this morning.

Morning Forecast

Here is a screenshot from SkyTracker PinPoint Doppler from 3:30 am. As you can see, the few sprinkles and rain showers we had overnight are pushing east along with the impulse that caused it.

Forecast Discussion- Middle Tennessee- January 02, 2009

Day One... Friday, Look for any showers to push east of the area by late morning. Temperatures will warm nicely today into the mid 50's with partly cloudy skies. Tonight the warm southerly flow will keep lows in the mid 40's.

Day Two- Four- Saturday- Monday, Clouds will move back into our area for Saturday bringing showers and thunderstorms by Saturday night. The showers and thunderstorms likely will continue into the day on Sunday. Expect temperatures this weekend to be unseasonably warm in the 60's.

Day Five- Seven- Tuesday- Thursday, Much colder air begins to work into the midstate during this period. Thunderstorms on Tuesday will usher in much colder air Tuesday night. A few showers will be left over on Wednesday with a chilly day of highs struggling to top 40. As the cold air spills into the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday, a few wet snow flakes could mix in with the wrap around showers, but nothing of significance at this time.

Snowman

4:02am

Weekly Planner

Forecast Package

Forecast Discussion
Middle Tennessee
December 31, 2008

Short Term- Tonight- Thursday:
Tonights weather will be quite chilly. Lows tonight will drop into the low to mid 20's across the middle Tennessee valley. Thursday will be mostly sunny with some high clouds moving in later in the day. Thursday night a warm southerly flow will increase the rain shower chance for some of our southern and eastern counties. Temperatures should remain above freezing, though slightly, to keep everything liquid. Will continue to monitor that forecast tomorrow though to be sure.

Mid Term- Friday- Sunday:
Clouds will hang around for parts of the day on Friday. Temperatures will remain seasonable. Saturday a warm front will lift northward and increase rain chances once again. Some thunder is possible on Saturday night as well as parts of Sunday.

Long Term- Monday- Wednesday:
By monday, a deepening low pressure system over texas will head towards the mid-state. At this time, the latest thinking is that the low will track over Middle Tennessee. In this scenario, wintry weather does not look to be an issue. Much colder air will filter into the area on Tuesday night in wake of the cold front which will pass through the area Tuesday afternoon. If the cold air is able to push far enough south then a little snow could mix in across our northwestern counties, though chance of that happening remains low at this time. Showers will continue into the day on Wednesday will chilly seasonable temperatures.

Snowman

5:30pm

Forecast Package

Here is a look at your new year's forecast for Middle Tennessee. If you are headed out to any celebrations tonight, it will be wise for you to dress heavily as temperatures are expected to plunge well into the 20's. Be safe if you are headed out.

Now, here is the latest Volunteer Weekly Planner. There has begun to be some signals from models that our arctic plunge of air could well begin Tuesday night of next week. There are also some that believe we could start to see wintry weather begin Tuesday night. I am not gonna be the first person to jump on this forecast. Therefore, I have left that kind of weather out of the forecast this go around. I will be checking the models and looking over that forecast again this evening. However, If things continue to trend that way, then I will be forced to mention the chance of some wintry weather in the long term, however, at this time, there are no plans to introduce any wintry weather into the forecast for the next seven days.

Snowman
1:40am